But U.S. participation in the Paris agreement is not yet over. The U.S. could opt for a comeback, and Democratic candidate Joe Biden has promised to reinstate the deal „on the first day“ if he wins the election. If it does, the United States could officially resume its role under the Paris agreement in mid-February. For example, Fuller says, the U.S. should help fund a major climate project in the Caribbean, which would install weather stations that would map the topography of the seabed, to improve forecasts and help Caribbean countries use the data to better withstand the effects of climate change. But the Trump administration has cut back. If the withdrawal is effective, the United States will be the only UNFCCC member states that have not signed the Paris Agreement. At the time of the initial announcement of the withdrawal, Syria and Nicaragua were also not present; However, both Syria and Nicaragua have ratified the agreement, so the United States is the only UNFCCC member state that intends not to be a contracting party to the agreement.

[48] In accordance with Article 28 of the Paris Agreement, a country cannot announce its withdrawal from the agreement until three years after it came into force in the country concerned, which was in the case of the United States on November 4, 2016. Later, the White House said the United States would abide by the four-year withdrawal process. [4] On November 4, 2019, the administration announced a formal intention to resign, which takes 12 months. Until the withdrawal came into effect, the United States was required to meet its obligations under the agreement, such as the obligation to continue reporting its emissions to the United Nations. [5] The withdrawal came into effect on November 4, 2020, the day after the 2020 U.S. presidential elections. [6] „We know that the UK and the EU and the UN Secretary-General are planning to meet on 12 December, the 5th anniversary of the conclusion of negotiations on the Paris Agreement, where they will try to achieve more ambition,“ said Andrew Light. Luke Kemp, of the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University, wrote in a commentary for Nature that „withdrawal is unlikely to change U.S. emissions“ because „U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are disconnected from international legal obligations.“ He added, however, that this could hamper efforts to mitigate climate change if the United States ceases to contribute to the Green Climate Fund.

Kemp said the impact of a U.S. exit could be good or bad for the Paris agreement, because „an unseraunted American president can do more damage inside than outside the agreement.“ Finally, „a withdrawal could also make the United States a climate pariah and provide China and the EU with a unique opportunity to take control of the climate regime and significantly strengthen their international reputation and soft power.“ [16] On the other hand, there is the belief that China is not in a position to take control of the climate regime and that it should instead „help rebuild global leadership by replacing the Sino-Chinese G2 partnership with a climate 5 (C5) partnership comprising China, the EU, India, Brazil and South Africa.“ [14] The Paris Agreement has been essential for many corporate commitments, including from Amazon and Cargill.

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